The Obama-Clinton parallel in the 31st District

State Sen. Mary Whipple’s retirement announcement (and subsequent Republican-led redistricting) in Northern Virginia’s very own 31st District represents a do-or-die moment for our state and regional party organizations: a loss in November means a bulletproof GOP sweep of the legislative and executive tickets. It will allow McDonnell and Cuccinelli to pass crazy legislation privatizing ABC stores, de-funding education more than they already have, and promoting pointless, radical lawsuits all well before their respective terms are up – and it gives both of these right-wing conservatives immediate attention in the national landscape. The prospect of Bob McDonnell as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee is already a scary thought, but having Cuccinelli in the governor’s mansion or anywhere near national positions – the Senate or even the Presidency – is a far more frightening idea that suddenly puts everything into perspective. We need to win this one. Read more after the jump…

The two Democrats – longtime Arlington County Board chairwoman Barbara Favola and political newcomer and JAG Jaime Areizaga-Soto – are waged in a heated battle that is a bit unsettling to Virginia Dems all across the state. Areizaga-Soto was vetted to run by Progressives in the area who were disgruntled by the big-name endorsements for Favola, for a number of reasons. Progressives on the blogging circuit have criticized Favola for being stale on the campaign circuit and allegedly ruling with an iron-fist in Arlington. And, the plot thickens with a series of shady contributions from pro-Dulles Rail developers popping up all over Favola’s donation filing history.

Caren Merrick meets with Republican constituents at a campaign kickoff for Bulova-rival Dennis Husch

They have charged that Democrats will go down in flames against the press-friendly Caren Merrick in the Fall with Favola on the ticket, especially given Merrick’s strong connection to the popular Bob McDonnell (who is extremely well-liked in the new Eastern Loudoun inroads that McDonnell worked so hard to bring into the district). The establishment has argued, conversely, that Favola has lots of visibility in the region, which is extremely important to bringing a candidate to the forefront who is going to have less than 3 months – versus the usual 5 – to make his/her case to the voters.

In the midst of all this smoke, the path to victory for either candidate is a mix of two things: win the established, strong Democratic base that lies across Northern Fairfax, Arlington, and the younger corridors of Loudoun County; and make a convincing case to the pro-McDonnell electorate. Reminding the Democratic base that this is truly a do-or-die moment is going to require a ticket-wide effort built upon scare tactics (“Will you allow Bob McDonnell to continue to slash education funding by ignoring this election?”), connections (making use of every prominent and popular politico in the region), and effective marketing (“This race is just as meaningful as a national contest”).

On the other hand, convincing the McDonnell electorate is going to be a bit of a stretch. Caren Merrick’s close relationship with Bob McDonnell makes an endorsement not just likely but overwhelming. Taking a risk here is absolutely up to the respective campaigns, but I believe that it will firmly make a difference in the end. Education is, outside of transportation, the biggest issue here in the Northern Virginia suburbs and McDonnell’s proposed $731 million education cuts are not going to go down well with parents and grandparents. Making the case here is not solely about attacking the cuts, but latching them onto Ms. Merrick and revealing just how unnecessary they are. Near-billion dollar cuts in education only threaten the future of our children, attack our school budgets, and hurt educators (who are still enduring salary freezes).

Analyzing the race reveals that making the case for election for either Areizaga-Soto or Favola is not exactly different for

Obama and Clinton's historic match-up saw politicos draw many parallels between the two

either of the candidates. This is what makes this race so much like President Obama and Hillary Clinton in early-08: Obama was the newcomer, Clinton the establishment. Obama found support on the Progressive circuit, Clinton the moderate front. The issues for either candidate on a national ticket – jobs and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – would be the same for either candidate. Here, the choice for voters in the 31st district is actually much like that parallel, and it’s a confusing one to dissect and ultimately decide upon.

Campaign contributions to Favola have rightfully unsettled the Areizaga-Soto camp. They are already nerved by her support from veteran, popular Dems – Jim Moran, Dick Saslaw, Janet Howell, and the district’s own Mary Whipple – and see her support from the pro-Dulles developers across the region as big buck opportunities that will ultimately give her the advantage in the coming weeks. Examining her support from the developers a few days back was not our golden opportunity to attack Ms. Favola, but simply to point out a money trail that is not really getting a lot of attention in the media. The striking uniformity between the plethora of campaign donations that Ms. Favola – as well as others Democrat and Republican – have collected is a reflection of how important the Dulles developers see a local politican’s ability to approve specific projects and determine allocation of local funding. Doing the dirty deed of pinpointing these contributions was not an assault on her campaign, but rather early foresight of what Caren Merrick will ultimately use to attack Favola if the Arlington Board member becomes the candidate.

In 08, I was a fervent supporter of Hillary Clinton and appreciated her experience; I found it necessary to tackle the difficult challenges we are currently facing. Ultimately, I stood behind Barack Obama when he won over the nomination and his approach to the Presidency has exceeded all of my initial expectations. Here, it wasn’t a matter of the wrong choice being made, but a different path being supported. Unfortunately, I cannot say the same of this race: Favola is more ready to be the candidate, but Areizaga-Soto is more poised to be the candidate.

We are at a moment in Virginia politics where every single race matters and every single vote counts. The implications of losing the Senate have already been drawn up, signed, sealed, and delivered. Now, it’s just about making the right choice in the coming weeks that will ultimately determine our fate in November and beyond. Ms. Favola is an experienced candidate with amazing hindsight and a dedicated approach to results in this area; I will support her if she is the candidate after August 23rd and fight for her in November. Unfortunately, Caren Merrick is a strong candidate who will have the Republican freight train behind her to trash Favola’s record.

That is exactly why this is Jaime Areizaga-Soto’s moment to take local politics by storm and use his unique experiences as a political appointee and Lt. Colonel. That is exactly why Democrats – Progressive, moderate, and otherwise – need to band together. Because in January, it isn’t really going to matter whether Favola or Areizaga-Soto is the candidate:  it’s going to matter whether we have a Democrat to keep the Republicans in the Governor’s Mansion and General Assembly from passing whirlwind pieces of legislation that will uproot this Commonwealth for good. We need someone who can and will win, and for that reason, Jaime is our man.